Don Cass

Risk Course Outline

RISK                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     DON CASS

SPRING 2006

Goals                                                                            Suggested Texts (at Sherman=s and on reserve)

to be able to ask intelligent questions about risks             Against the Gods: A History of Risk

to be familiar with the people & jargon in the field              Risk: A Practical Guide for Deciding What=s Safe

to appreciate the complex Aecology of risks@                                How to Lie With Statistics

(also good: Wilson & Crouch Risk Benefit Analysis)

# date TOPICS/QUESTIONS RESOURCES

1) INTRODUCTIONS

1 Mon

3/27

What is Risk?

What Risks do people worry about?

Typical 4 steps

$ Hazard identification

$ Dose‑response assessment

$ Exposure assessment

$ Risk characterization

Good notes about each in U of Washington class folder

TEXTS & HANDOUTS

Risks of different sorts of Power Generation

ONLINE

1.1 ACS Understanding Risk

1.2 2006 SRA Preliminary Program

1.3 Renn’s Types of risks

1.5 QALY

1.6 Implementing QALYs

1.7 life expectancy increases

1.9 Global Burden of Diseases

1.10 All=s well that ends well

How to Rank Risks

ON RESERVE

Polar Bear Strategy chapter 4

Wilson & Couch Chapter 1

TO DO:

2 Thurs 3/30 How to classify risks?

Why do people worry about what they worry about?

TEXTS & HANDOUTS

ONLINE

2.1 Are you a risk taker poll

2.2 Slovic: Science & the perception of risk

2.3 Kahneman=s Nobel address on intuition & risk

(video available at Nobel website)

2.4 Beck Risk Society

2.4b Beck Politics of a Risk Society

2.5 Giddens Reflexivity

2.5b Giddens post scarcity society

2.6 cultural theories of risk

2.6b cultural views & risks

2.6b Sjoberg paper

2.6c Wildavsky pollution as moral coercion

2.6d Wildavsky heuristic

2.6e world views political attitudes & risk perception

2.7 Margolis

2.7b Margolis Dealing with Risk

2.7c Psychology of Risk

2.8 John Adams

2.9 The Unconscious in Risk Perception

2.10 Australian Risk Perception

2.11 Theories of explanation

2.12 Amherst randomness

2.13 New Yorker Article

2.14 The Scandal of prediction

2.15 Counterfactuals & causation

RESERVE

The Perception of Risk Chapter 5

Polar Bear Strategy: chapter 5:

TO DO:

3 Tues

4/3

Intuiting Risk (risk perception)
4 Thurs

4/6

John Visvader

Does causality exist?

Are risks good or bad?

2) PROBABILITY & RISK

5 Mon

4/10

Quantifying Risk: Probability TEXTS & HANDOUTS

Against the Gods

ONLINE

3.0 136 p science & risk

3.1 history of casting lots

3.2 Elster casting lots

3.3 coin toss

3.4 randomness to probability ppt

3.5 intro to probability

3.6 simple probability notes

3.7 Snell=s 500p chance book

3.8 the meaning of probability

3.9 probabilistic risk assessment

CHANCE MOVIE: PROBA AND STATS IN GAMING

4.1 deMoivre original

4.2 Bayes original

4.3 good Bayes summary

4.4 Intuitive explanation of Bayes

4.5 Jayne book on Bayes

4.6 Bayesian truth serum

4.7 Gallon=s original

5.1 Jevons 1871 political economy

5.2 arrow 1972 Nobel lecture

RESERVE

Polar Bear Strategy chapter 2 (history of probability)

Chance Rules 173p

Randomness 185p

6 Thurs

4/13

Bell curves & Risks
7 Mon

4/17

Davis Taylor:

Modern Risk Analysis

3) QUANTIFYING TYPES OF RISKS

8 Thurs

4/20

Quantifying Toxins TEXTS

ONLINE: Crystal Ball & PBPK models

6.1 Assessing neurotoxicity 127p

6.2 Assessing Reproductive Risks 164p

6.3 Carcinogenic Effects of Benzene 69p

6.4 cancer risk

6.5 exposure

6.6 dose

US health 456p

RESERVE

Calculated Risks 250p

Exposure Assessment in the National Children=s Study:        Introduction Environ Health Perspectives 113:1076‑1082.

9 Mon

4/24

Quantifying Risk: Epidemiology TEXTS

ONLINE

PC Wonder

SEER

7.1 Epidemiology of cancer

7 Stolley & Alosetron

John Snow website: http://www.ph.ucla.edu/epi/snow.html

CHANCE 56 min TALK ON EPIDEMIOLOGY

Web lectures cataloged on line at

http://www.pitt.edu/~super1/assist/topicsearch

RESERVE

Investigating Disease Patterns 217p

TODO

10 Thurs

4/27

Quantifying technological Risks TEXTS

ONLINE

8.1 Assessing Technological Risks 39p

8.2 Kates Comparative Risk Analysis of Technological Haz.

RESERVE

TODO

11 Mon

5/1

Quantifying Ecological Risks

(John Anderson?)

TEXTS

ONLINE

9.1 EPA guidelines for ecological risk assessment

9.2 natural vs human disasters

9.3 ecotoxicology

9.4 Ecosystem valuation

RESERVE

Suter: Ecological Risk Assessment

TODO

12 Thurs

5/4

Communicating Risks: What language can  replace AIt=s safe@?

(Cooper?)

TEXTS: How to Lie With Statistics 142p

ONLINE

10.1 Risk Communication 4p

CHANCE MOVIE: HOW TO DISPLAY DATA BADLY

EPA IRIS website

RESERVE

Bill Moyers Frontline

PERIL

Tufte

TODO

4) COMMUNICATING & MANAGING RISKS

13 Mon

5/8

Managing Risks TEXTS

ONLINE

11.1 Swiss Risk 19p

11.2 MEPP spreadsheet

11.3 RFF: Comparative Risk Analysis 38p

11.4 Comparing risks thoughtfully

11.5 from comparative risk to decision analysis

11.6 Wilson & crouch risk comparisons

11.7 Arsenic rule benefits analysis

11.8 Harvard center for risk assessment history

RESERVE

Polar bear chapter 4: Govt or individual? chap 7 How safe do          you want to be?  chap 8 Risk tradeoffs

Why Flip a Coin?

Rational Choice in Uncertain World

Risk Vs Risk

Wilson & Crouch chap 5 & 6 & list of costs of 500 lifesaving           measures

TODO

14 Thurs

5/11

Managing Risks

The Precautionary Principle

TEXTS

ONLINE

12.1 HCRA 6p

12.2 Sunstein 49p

12.3 100 years of the precautionary principle 211p

12.4 Risks of Risk Decisions

18 GMOs 80p

RESERVE

TODO

15 Mon

5/15

Risks of Food & Drink TEXTS: RAPG: alcohol, sweeteners, caffeine, illness, irradiation, GMO, mad cow, microwaves, tobacco

ONLINE:

15 Binge Drinking 15p

RESERVE:

True Odds: alar, are what eat

Danger Ahead: 73-95

Book Of Risks:122-131

Risk vs Risk: fish, drinking water, pesticides

But Is It True: cranberries, saccharin, alar

TODO

16 Thurs

5/18

Doug Johnson

Biotechnology in Maine

5) SPECIFIC RISKS

17 Mon

5/22

Travel risks: TEXTS: RAPG: motor vehicles, air bags, cell phones, school busses,

ONLINE:

14 Travel fatality risk

CHANCE TALK: RISK IN EVERYDAY LIFE

RESERVE

TrueOdds: 133-157, 221-237

Danger Ahead: 145-153

Book Of Risks: 45-65

Risk vs Risk: 87-104 (elderly & vehicle weight)

Risk (Adams): 113-159

TODO

18 Thurs

5/25

Medical Risks: TEXTS: RAPG: 321-421 (antibiotics, breast implants, cancer, heart disease, HIV, mammograms, medical errors, obesity, STDs, vaccines, xrays)

ONLINE

16 25 unfounded health scares 53p

CHANCE MOVIE: ASPIRIN AND HEALTH DISEASE

RESERVE

True Odds: aids, ebola, cancer, old age, cell phones,

Danger Ahead: sex 57-73 diseases 95-115

Book Of Risks: health risks 65-89, sex 113-122

Risk vs Risk: estrogen, clozapine

TODO

19 Mon

5/29

Paul Stolley
20 Thurs

6/1

Pollution TEXTS

RAPG: 151-321

ONLINE

17.1 Bisphenol A 4p

17.2 West Nile Insecticides 41p

RESERVE

True Odds 2nd hand smoke

But Is It True: PCBs, DDT< dioxin, love canal, waste sites,

asbestos, acid rain, CFCs

TODO

Evaluation will be based on:

1) Attendance & participation

2) A final 20-25 page paper addressing some aspect of risk. You need to meet with me to discuss your ideas by the end of week 3 (April 15th) and submit a written research proposal by the end of week 5 (April 28th). The proposal should include:

a.  A one or two paragraph statement of the question or problem to be addressed and the objectives of the paper.

b.  An explanation of why this is a significant or interesting problem.

c.  A one page preliminary outline showing the key points and organization of the paper.

d.  A preliminary and probably partial list of the references that you have located.  This is to show that there is sufficient material available to support your research.

A rough draft of your paper is due by the beginning of week 8 (May 15th) The final draft of your paper is due by the end of the term. (June 2)

I expect everyone to give a brief (~10 minute) presentation of their paper in a class near the end of the term.

Some ideas:

lead in COA water                                                                                                    Marie=s Arsenic                     Nalgene bottles

winter car accidents on MDI                                                            bicycling in Acadia,   chlorinated vs well water

herbal teas                                                                                                                             sweeteners                            cell phones

radon                                                                                                                                                  smoking                                    skiing

horseback riding                                                                                                       school bus seat belts            trampolines

mercury                                                                                                                                                          dioxins                                    fluoride

tanning                                                                                                                                    childbirth                                 high voltage power lines

SOME WARNINGS:

This class is risky

This isn=t Amy field@

I=m more used to teaching about things that have Aanswers@ than opinions

This course will only work if you think and communicate!

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