RISK DON CASS
SPRING 2006
Goals Suggested Texts (at Sherman=s and on reserve)
to be able to ask intelligent questions about risks Against the Gods: A History of Risk
to be familiar with the people & jargon in the field Risk: A Practical Guide for Deciding What=s Safe
to appreciate the complex Aecology of risks@ How to Lie With Statistics
(also good: Wilson & Crouch Risk Benefit Analysis)
| # | date | TOPICS/QUESTIONS | RESOURCES |
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1) INTRODUCTIONS |
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| 1 | Mon
3/27 |
What is Risk?
What Risks do people worry about? Typical 4 steps $ Hazard identification $ Dose‑response assessment $ Exposure assessment $ Risk characterization Good notes about each in U of Washington class folder |
TEXTS & HANDOUTS
Risks of different sorts of Power Generation ONLINE 1.1 ACS Understanding Risk 1.2 2006 SRA Preliminary Program 1.3 Renn’s Types of risks 1.5 QALY 1.6 Implementing QALYs 1.7 life expectancy increases 1.9 Global Burden of Diseases 1.10 All=s well that ends well How to Rank Risks ON RESERVE Polar Bear Strategy chapter 4 Wilson & Couch Chapter 1 TO DO: |
| 2 | Thurs 3/30 | How to classify risks?
Why do people worry about what they worry about? |
TEXTS & HANDOUTS
ONLINE 2.1 Are you a risk taker poll 2.2 Slovic: Science & the perception of risk 2.3 Kahneman=s Nobel address on intuition & risk (video available at Nobel website) 2.4 Beck Risk Society 2.4b Beck Politics of a Risk Society 2.5 Giddens Reflexivity 2.5b Giddens post scarcity society 2.6 cultural theories of risk 2.6b cultural views & risks 2.6b Sjoberg paper 2.6c Wildavsky pollution as moral coercion 2.6d Wildavsky heuristic 2.6e world views political attitudes & risk perception 2.7 Margolis 2.7b Margolis Dealing with Risk 2.7c Psychology of Risk 2.8 John Adams 2.9 The Unconscious in Risk Perception 2.10 Australian Risk Perception 2.11 Theories of explanation 2.12 Amherst randomness 2.13 New Yorker Article 2.14 The Scandal of prediction 2.15 Counterfactuals & causation RESERVE The Perception of Risk Chapter 5 Polar Bear Strategy: chapter 5: TO DO: |
| 3 | Tues
4/3 |
Intuiting Risk (risk perception) | |
| 4 | Thurs
4/6 |
John Visvader
Does causality exist? Are risks good or bad? |
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2) PROBABILITY & RISK |
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| 5 | Mon
4/10 |
Quantifying Risk: Probability | TEXTS & HANDOUTS
Against the Gods ONLINE 3.0 136 p science & risk 3.1 history of casting lots 3.2 Elster casting lots 3.3 coin toss 3.4 randomness to probability ppt 3.5 intro to probability 3.6 simple probability notes 3.7 Snell=s 500p chance book 3.8 the meaning of probability 3.9 probabilistic risk assessment CHANCE MOVIE: PROBA AND STATS IN GAMING 4.1 deMoivre original 4.2 Bayes original 4.3 good Bayes summary 4.4 Intuitive explanation of Bayes 4.5 Jayne book on Bayes 4.6 Bayesian truth serum 4.7 Gallon=s original 5.1 Jevons 1871 political economy 5.2 arrow 1972 Nobel lecture RESERVE Polar Bear Strategy chapter 2 (history of probability) Chance Rules 173p Randomness 185p |
| 6 | Thurs
4/13 |
Bell curves & Risks | |
| 7 | Mon
4/17 |
Davis Taylor:
Modern Risk Analysis |
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3) QUANTIFYING TYPES OF RISKS |
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| 8 | Thurs
4/20 |
Quantifying Toxins | TEXTS
ONLINE: Crystal Ball & PBPK models 6.1 Assessing neurotoxicity 127p 6.2 Assessing Reproductive Risks 164p 6.3 Carcinogenic Effects of Benzene 69p 6.4 cancer risk 6.5 exposure 6.6 dose US health 456p RESERVE Calculated Risks 250p Exposure Assessment in the National Children=s Study: Introduction Environ Health Perspectives 113:1076‑1082. |
| 9 | Mon
4/24 |
Quantifying Risk: Epidemiology | TEXTS
ONLINE PC Wonder SEER 7.1 Epidemiology of cancer 7 Stolley & Alosetron John Snow website: http://www.ph.ucla.edu/epi/snow.html CHANCE 56 min TALK ON EPIDEMIOLOGY Web lectures cataloged on line at http://www.pitt.edu/~super1/assist/topicsearch RESERVE Investigating Disease Patterns 217p TODO |
| 10 | Thurs
4/27 |
Quantifying technological Risks | TEXTS
ONLINE 8.1 Assessing Technological Risks 39p 8.2 Kates Comparative Risk Analysis of Technological Haz. RESERVE TODO |
| 11 | Mon
5/1 |
Quantifying Ecological Risks
(John Anderson?) |
TEXTS
ONLINE 9.1 EPA guidelines for ecological risk assessment 9.2 natural vs human disasters 9.3 ecotoxicology 9.4 Ecosystem valuation RESERVE Suter: Ecological Risk Assessment TODO |
| 12 | Thurs
5/4 |
Communicating Risks: What language can replace AIt=s safe@?
(Cooper?) |
TEXTS: How to Lie With Statistics 142p
ONLINE 10.1 Risk Communication 4p CHANCE MOVIE: HOW TO DISPLAY DATA BADLY EPA IRIS website RESERVE Bill Moyers Frontline PERIL Tufte TODO |
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4) COMMUNICATING & MANAGING RISKS |
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| 13 | Mon
5/8 |
Managing Risks | TEXTS
ONLINE 11.1 Swiss Risk 19p 11.2 MEPP spreadsheet 11.3 RFF: Comparative Risk Analysis 38p 11.4 Comparing risks thoughtfully 11.5 from comparative risk to decision analysis 11.6 Wilson & crouch risk comparisons 11.7 Arsenic rule benefits analysis 11.8 Harvard center for risk assessment history RESERVE Polar bear chapter 4: Govt or individual? chap 7 How safe do you want to be? chap 8 Risk tradeoffs Why Flip a Coin? Rational Choice in Uncertain World Risk Vs Risk Wilson & Crouch chap 5 & 6 & list of costs of 500 lifesaving measures TODO |
| 14 | Thurs
5/11 |
Managing Risks
The Precautionary Principle |
TEXTS
ONLINE 12.1 HCRA 6p 12.2 Sunstein 49p 12.3 100 years of the precautionary principle 211p 12.4 Risks of Risk Decisions 18 GMOs 80p RESERVE TODO |
| 15 | Mon
5/15 |
Risks of Food & Drink | TEXTS: RAPG: alcohol, sweeteners, caffeine, illness, irradiation, GMO, mad cow, microwaves, tobacco
ONLINE: 15 Binge Drinking 15p RESERVE: True Odds: alar, are what eat Danger Ahead: 73-95 Book Of Risks:122-131 Risk vs Risk: fish, drinking water, pesticides But Is It True: cranberries, saccharin, alar TODO |
| 16 | Thurs
5/18 |
Doug Johnson
Biotechnology in Maine |
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5) SPECIFIC RISKS |
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| 17 | Mon
5/22 |
Travel risks: | TEXTS: RAPG: motor vehicles, air bags, cell phones, school busses,
ONLINE: 14 Travel fatality risk CHANCE TALK: RISK IN EVERYDAY LIFE RESERVE TrueOdds: 133-157, 221-237 Danger Ahead: 145-153 Book Of Risks: 45-65 Risk vs Risk: 87-104 (elderly & vehicle weight) Risk (Adams): 113-159 TODO |
| 18 | Thurs
5/25 |
Medical Risks: | TEXTS: RAPG: 321-421 (antibiotics, breast implants, cancer, heart disease, HIV, mammograms, medical errors, obesity, STDs, vaccines, xrays)
ONLINE 16 25 unfounded health scares 53p CHANCE MOVIE: ASPIRIN AND HEALTH DISEASE RESERVE True Odds: aids, ebola, cancer, old age, cell phones, Danger Ahead: sex 57-73 diseases 95-115 Book Of Risks: health risks 65-89, sex 113-122 Risk vs Risk: estrogen, clozapine TODO |
| 19 | Mon
5/29 |
Paul Stolley | |
| 20 | Thurs
6/1 |
Pollution | TEXTS
RAPG: 151-321 ONLINE 17.1 Bisphenol A 4p 17.2 West Nile Insecticides 41p RESERVE True Odds 2nd hand smoke But Is It True: PCBs, DDT< dioxin, love canal, waste sites, asbestos, acid rain, CFCs TODO |
Evaluation will be based on:
1) Attendance & participation
2) A final 20-25 page paper addressing some aspect of risk. You need to meet with me to discuss your ideas by the end of week 3 (April 15th) and submit a written research proposal by the end of week 5 (April 28th). The proposal should include:
a. A one or two paragraph statement of the question or problem to be addressed and the objectives of the paper.
b. An explanation of why this is a significant or interesting problem.
c. A one page preliminary outline showing the key points and organization of the paper.
d. A preliminary and probably partial list of the references that you have located. This is to show that there is sufficient material available to support your research.
A rough draft of your paper is due by the beginning of week 8 (May 15th) The final draft of your paper is due by the end of the term. (June 2)
I expect everyone to give a brief (~10 minute) presentation of their paper in a class near the end of the term.
Some ideas:
lead in COA water Marie=s Arsenic Nalgene bottles
winter car accidents on MDI bicycling in Acadia, chlorinated vs well water
herbal teas sweeteners cell phones
radon smoking skiing
horseback riding school bus seat belts trampolines
mercury dioxins fluoride
tanning childbirth high voltage power lines
…
SOME WARNINGS:
This class is risky
This isn=t Amy field@
I=m more used to teaching about things that have Aanswers@ than opinions
This course will only work if you think and communicate!
